Live Feed Materials are now Posted on the New Website!

We are excited to inform you that the Mercenary Trading Desk (formerly the Live Feed) is now available to subscribers on the new website: http://members.mercenarytrader.com/mercenary-trading-desk/

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09/11 Position Summary

Continue reading 09/11 Position Summary

9/11 Setups & Adjustments

- AUD/USD First Tranche: Tightening risk point to 0.7457

- USD/CAD First Tranche: Tightening risk point to 1.2814

- TUES: Tightening risk point to 10.78

- RL: Tightening risk point to 128.20

See pending orders screen for trade details and risk points.

Profitable But Hesitant, Heeding Tepper’s Adage Heading Into Fed Week

PDF Version

Next week the Federal Reserve will dominate market sentiment. The world is wondering aloud whether it will be “hike or no hike.” All of our current positions are profitable heading into Fed week, but breakeven stops are close on many of them. There are no positions we are truly excited about at moment, and conviction in respect to general conditions is low.

It would be ideal to find some offsetting bullish positions at this point. But very few areas of the market are maintaining constructive price patterns — almost none actually. One of the remaining industry areas with a slight bullish tilt to it is ITB, the US home construction ETF. And even that is no great shakes.

Continue reading 09/20 Commentary

9/10 Position Summary

Continue reading 9/10 Position Summary

09/10 Setups & Adjustements

- TUES: Tightening risk point to 10.99

See pending orders screen for trade details and risk points.

Emerging Market Bankers Versus Wall Street Wise Men

PDF Version

From the Financial Times:

Emerging market central bankers have urged the US Federal Reserve to raise rates sooner rather later in order to end the uncertainty over Fed policy that has pummeled stock markets and currencies in recent weeks.

Continue reading 09/19 Commentary

09/09 Position Summary

Continue reading 09/09 Position Summary

09/09 Setups & Adjustments

- AUD/USD First Tranche: Tightening risk point to 0.7498

- USD/CAD USD First Tranche: Tightening risk point to 1.2781

- TUES: Tightening risk point to 11.23

- RL: Tightening risk point to 128.92

See pending orders screen for trade details and risk points.

Equity Bulls Still Have Some Statistical Ammo Behind Them

PDF Version

Leon Cooperman of Omega Advisors believes the equity bull market is not over. He points out the following as his top argument:

This would be the first bull market in history to end without one Federal Reserve interest rate tightening.

There have been eight interest rate cycles since the mid-1950s, and the market went up for 30 months on average after each rate hike, he said. In addition, the market was up 9½ percent one year after liftoff on average across those eight cycles.

By the statistical logic of history, then, the first ever rate hike in nine years from the Federal Reserve should actually be more of a bullish even than bearish — signaling a “ninth inning” type period of bullish movement.

Continue reading 09/09 Commentary

09/08 Position Summary

Continue reading 09/08 Position Summary

09/08 Trade Log

Updated real time – email / phone texts available via twitter

  • 14:41 MU hit our breakeven risk point – covered @ 17.52
  • 09:32 CNW hit our breakeven risk point – covered @ 36.40

More Congestion as the Major Indices Absorb Crosscurrents

PDF Version

We continue to see the major US indices move sideways in a range in the aftermath of August’s violent drop. The global focus is still on China, but there are questions as to what China means for equities moving forward. China’s problems are serious but possibly not systemic, which means the world can get past them.

Continue reading 09/08 Commentary

09/04 Position Summary

Continue reading 09/04 Position Summary

09/04 Setups & Adjustments

- AUD/USD First Tranche: Tightening risk point to 0.7543

- TUES: Tightening risk point to 11.53

See pending orders screen for trade details and risk points.